2013 Season

Compu-Picks Midseason Report: Simulations

Over the next week or so, I will be publishing a number of midseason articles, evaluating Compu-Picks' performance so far and making projections for the future. Below is the first article of this series, displaying the results of 1,000 season simulations using results through Saturday October 12th and the Compu-Picks team ratings that have come out of that data (link here).

The below table shows the results of these simulations. Projected overall and league wins are shown, with reach number representing the average number of wins from each simulation. I have also shown the projected league or division rank of each team (except independents) for those who would like to track the Stassen Preseason Consensus (I may have a post on this coming soon).

TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Boston College ACC ACC A 6.6 3.6 4
Clemson ACC ACC A 10.8 7.2 2
Florida State ACC ACC A 11.3 7.5 1
Maryland ACC ACC A 8.7 4.7 3
North Carolina State ACC ACC A 4.3 1.1 7
Syracuse ACC ACC A 5.2 3.2 5
Wake Forest ACC ACC A 4.1 1.9 6
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Duke ACC ACC C 6.7 2.7 5
Georgia Tech ACC ACC C 6.5 4.3 3
Miami (Florida) ACC ACC C 10.7 6.7 1
Pittsburgh ACC ACC C 7.1 3.7 4
North Carolina ACC ACC C 3.9 2.0 6
Virginia ACC ACC C 3.2 1.2 7
Virginia Tech ACC ACC C 9.3 6.3 2
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Baylor Big 12 0 11.6 8.6 1
Iowa State Big 12 0 3.7 2.7 9
Kansas Big 12 0 2.3 0.3 10
Kansas State Big 12 0 5.4 3.4 8
Oklahoma Big 12 0 8.8 5.8 4
Oklahoma State Big 12 0 7.4 4.4 5
Texas Big 12 0 7.2 6.2 3
Texas Christian Big 12 0 5.6 3.6 6
Texas Tech Big 12 0 9.7 6.7 2
West Virginia Big 12 0 5.4 3.4 7
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Central Florida American 0 9.9 6.9 2
Cincinnati American 0 6.0 3.0 7
Connecticut American 0 1.9 1.9 9
Houston American 0 8.8 5.5 3
Louisville American 0 11.7 7.7 1
Memphis American 0 5.4 3.4 5
Rutgers American 0 8.2 5.2 4
Southern Methodist American 0 3.5 2.5 8
South Florida American 0 3.4 3.4 6
Temple American 0 0.9 0.6 10
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Iowa Big Ten B10 Lg 6.9 3.9 4
Michigan Big Ten B10 Lg 8.1 4.1 3
Michigan State Big Ten B10 Lg 9.2 6.2 1
Minnesota Big Ten B10 Lg 4.8 0.8 6
Nebraska Big Ten B10 Lg 8.4 5.4 2
Northwestern Big Ten B10 Lg 6.9 2.9 5
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Illinois Big Ten B10 Ld 5.3 2.3 5
Indiana Big Ten B10 Ld 6.2 4.2 4
Ohio State Big Ten B10 Ld 11.6 7.6 1
Penn State Big Ten B10 Ld 7.4 4.4 3
Purdue Big Ten B10 Ld 1.1 0.1 6
Wisconsin Big Ten B10 Ld 8.9 6.2 2
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
East Carolina C-USA CUSA E 9.3 6.6 2
Marshall C-USA CUSA E 8.9 6.9 1
Middle Tennessee State C-USA CUSA E 6.5 4.5 3
Southern Mississippi C-USA CUSA E 0.6 0.6 7
Alabama-Birmingham C-USA CUSA E 3.7 2.7 5
Florida Atlantic C-USA CUSA E 5.5 3.4 4
Florida International C-USA CUSA E 2.4 2.4 6
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Louisiana Tech C-USA CUSA W 3.5 2.5 6
North Texas C-USA CUSA W 8.5 6.5 3
Rice C-USA CUSA W 8.6 6.6 2
Tulane C-USA CUSA W 8.6 6.6 1
Tulsa C-USA CUSA W 3.8 2.8 5
Texas-El Paso C-USA CUSA W 1.5 0.5 7
UTSA C-USA CUSA W 4.3 3.3 4
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Army Indep 0 5.3
Brigham Young Indep 0 8.3
Idaho Indep 0 1.9
Navy Indep 0 6.3
New Mexico State Indep 0 0.5
Notre Dame Indep 0 7.1
Old Dominion Indep 0 7.9
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Akron MAC MAC E 3.0 2.0 6
Bowling Green State MAC MAC E 8.5 6.5 2
Buffalo MAC MAC E 8.7 6.7 1
Kent MAC MAC E 3.8 2.8 4
Miami (Ohio) MAC MAC E 0.2 0.2 7
Ohio MAC MAC E 8.5 5.5 3
UMass MAC MAC E 2.3 2.3 5
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Ball State MAC MAC W 10.4 7.4 1
Central Michigan MAC MAC W 5.1 4.1 4
Eastern Michigan MAC MAC W 1.9 0.9 6
Northern Illinois MAC MAC W 10.9 6.9 2
Toledo MAC MAC W 7.2 5.4 3
Western Michigan MAC MAC W 1.3 1.3 5
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Air Force Mountain West MWC M 2.3 1.0 6
Boise State Mountain West MWC M 8.7 6.5 2
Colorado State Mountain West MWC M 4.2 2.2 4
New Mexico Mountain West MWC M 3.3 1.3 5
Utah State Mountain West MWC M 7.7 6.7 1
Wyoming Mountain West MWC M 6.5 4.5 3
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Fresno State Mountain West MWC W 9.8 6.8 1
Hawaii Mountain West MWC W 1.6 1.1 6
Nevada Mountain West MWC W 5.7 4.6 3
San Diego State Mountain West MWC W 6.7 5.7 2
San Jose State Mountain West MWC W 5.6 4.1 4
Nevada-Las Vegas Mountain West MWC W 5.4 3.4 5
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
California Pac-12 P12 N 1.5 0.5 6
Oregon Pac-12 P12 N 11.8 8.8 1
Oregon State Pac-12 P12 N 8.3 6.3 2
Stanford Pac-12 P12 N 8.8 5.9 3
Washington Pac-12 P12 N 8.5 5.5 4
Washington State Pac-12 P12 N 5.0 3.0 5
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Arizona Pac-12 P12 S 6.4 3.4 5
Arizona State Pac-12 P12 S 6.8 4.8 2
Colorado Pac-12 P12 S 4.0 1.0 6
UCLA Pac-12 P12 S 9.4 6.4 1
Southern California Pac-12 P12 S 7.4 3.9 4
Utah Pac-12 P12 S 7.4 4.4 3
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Florida SEC SEC E 7.3 5.0 4
Georgia SEC SEC E 8.9 6.1 2
Kentucky SEC SEC E 2.7 0.7 7
Missouri SEC SEC E 11.1 7.1 1
South Carolina SEC SEC E 8.6 5.3 3
Tennessee SEC SEC E 5.8 2.8 5
Vanderbilt SEC SEC E 5.1 1.3 6
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Alabama SEC SEC W 11.7 7.7 1
Arkansas SEC SEC W 3.8 0.8 7
Auburn SEC SEC W 7.7 3.8 4
Louisiana State SEC SEC W 9.7 5.7 2
Mississippi SEC SEC W 7.2 3.2 5
Mississippi State SEC SEC W 4.4 1.4 6
Texas A&M SEC SEC W 9.1 5.1 3
TeamLeagueDivProj WinsProj League WinsRank
Arkansas State Sun Belt 0 5.8 3.8 4
Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt 0 7.0 4.0 3
Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 0 5.4 3.4 5
Troy State Sun Belt 0 5.2 3.2 6
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 0 9.4 5.6 1
South Alabama Sun Belt 0 7.9 5.4 2
Texas State Sun Belt 0 5.9 2.1 7
Georgia State Sun Belt 0 2.4 0.4 8
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