2013 Preview

Good News - Texas Christian Horned Frogs

The Compu-Picks 2013 Preview contains a number of analyses. One section of the preview specifically deals with negative projections for teams Compu-Picks is materially more pessimistic on than popular perception, and is entitled "Bad News". The counterpart, highlights of team Compu-Picks is more optimistic on than popular perception, will be called "Good News" and will be provided free to the public. One of these analyses is provided below.

You may remember that the Compu-Picks Spring Preview was extremely high on Texas Christian, calling them the surprise team of 2013 and ranking them #3 overall. The final preview edition is lower on the Frogs than that, dropping down to #9 but still in the top ten and well within range of the teams ranked just above them, and still substantially over national consensus. Compu-Picks also calls for just about a 9.5 win total, substantially above the books' number of 8 even (slight hook over).

It's incredibly easy to forget after their struggles in year one of their Big 12 tenure and a bit of rebuilding in 2011, but this program was absolutely elite in 2008-2010. They've got a history of producing at an extremely high level, and there's legitimate reason to think they can do it again. They return an overwhelming amount of production on defense, they get QB Pachall back (who was elite at times in 2011 before his off-field issues in 2012), their recruiting levels have substantially improved (though still nowhere near elite), and unlike many other national contenders, their turnover margins the past couple years have basically been even, which means there's a lot of room for potential improvement. All in all, this should be a majorly improved team compared to 2012.

Moreover, the schedule really isn't all that daunting. LSU is a tough opponent (but probably down to some degree in 2013), but the other two non-conference games (SMU and a AA team) should be cakewalks, and there are a number of other games that are rated at 90%+ win odds (Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa St, Baylor). If they sweep those six games (not a gimme but still likely), they'd have to go 2-6 against LSU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, OK St, Texas and Kansas St just to push. And most of those games Compu-Picks calls TCU the favorite in.

All in all, there's a whole lot to like about this team, and they have the potential to not just seriously contend for the Big 12 title and go well over the books' 8 win estimates, but also to potentially be a darkhorse national title contender. That's a reach, and there are obviously many things that could go wrong, but if this turns into the season where everything goes right (few injuries, good close game luck, a couple players develop much more than expected, etc.) watch out for TCU, as the Horned Frogs could very well end up surprising everybody.

Compu-Picks 2013 Preview Edition

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